On 15 April 1912, the Titanic sank. In the preceding hours, the ship received warnings about ice along its route. A message from the Mesaba reached the wireless room but, according to the British inquiry, did not reach the captain.
History remembers the iceberg. We talk less about the signals that came before it.
In 1972, social psychologist Irving Janis described what he called groupthink: the point at which the desire for agreement can displace critical thought.
Belonging to the group begins to matter more than independent assessment. Apparent unanimity can make a decision feel safer than it is. An illusion of invulnerability, self-censorship and reluctance to question the group's position can all be part of it.
In organisations, too, signals sometimes fail to reach the people making decisions. Groupthink is one mechanism that can discourage people from voicing doubts.
How often has someone already noticed the risk? Someone has already asked the uncomfortable question. Someone has already voiced a doubt. And then nothing happened. Or perhaps they did not dare speak at all, sensing that their view went against the group.
One of a leader's most important responsibilities is to create an environment in which warnings reach them. Even when they are uncomfortable. Especially then.
Sometimes the greatest danger is not the absence of a warning. It is the warning failing to reach the person who must decide.
For an independent view of the risks and assumptions behind a business decision, explore business advisory. For work on how a management team raises questions and responds to concerns, see leadership development.